We've had the Uber effect on Cabcharge, now prepare for the Airbnb effect on hotel groups such as market darling Mantra Group.
That's the view from Citi retail and leisure analyst Sam Teeger, who has started coverage on Mantra with a non-consensus "sell" call and $3.50 a share price target.
Teeger reckons Mantra faces significant competition from Airbnb and online travel agents, and increasing supply in some of its key markets.
It's the sort of disruption theory that is very topical among fund managers but hard to value given limited data available on the likes of Airbnb. It also comes as The Grattan Institute ralled governments and policymakers to encourage the sharing economy rather than try to nobble it with new rules.
"Google Search and Airbnb review data indicates a significant increase in Australian Airbnb activity over the last 12 months, which in our view has been masked by strong hotel demand," Teeger told clients on Thursday morning.
"However, we expect Airbnb to exacerbate the cyclicality in the hotel industry when demand slows.
"We currently see the economy leisure sector as most vulnerable to Airbnb, which is where Breakfree is positioned (~20% of Mantra's properties).
"Further downside could arise if Airbnb breaks into the corporate market through the BridgeStreet agreement or should property owners increasingly bypass Mantra and list their units on Airbnb."
Mantra shares were down 2.9 per cent to $3.98 on Thursday morning.
Read more: http://www.afr.com/street-talk/airbnb-is-the-big-sleeper-for-mantra-group-citi-says-20160421-gobm3m#ixzz46Qx0YkxV
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